Hopeless Tianjiao will turn into a seasonal declin

2022-10-03
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Close position hopeless Tianjiao will turn into a seasonal decline

after a slight rebound, Tianjiao market fell again on Thursday. Shanghai Jiaotong suffered a sell-off, and the contracts in recent months, which had been strong in the early stage, also plummeted. The 809 contract fell rapidly after the opening, and reached the limit within less than half an hour. It fell by the limit for most of the day, with a slight rebound at the end of the day; Yuanyue 811 contract also fell slightly by 1.60%

the short selling atmosphere in the surrounding markets and the weakness of fundamental expectations have affected the long sentiment of speculative funds. Funds continue to move to the far month, and the contract price spread in recent and far months has also narrowed. Insiders pointed out that due to the overall downturn of the market, the Bulls continue to close positions with little benefit, and the rubber market may turn into a seasonal downward trend

the possibility of closing positions further reduces the possibility of buying new recovery channels through the deposit recovery mode

yesterday, the contracts of Shanghai Jiaotong fell across the board after the opening of the market. Among them, the 809 contract, which had a strong trend in the early stage, opened flat and went down at the price of 27400 yuan, falling to the limit of 26020 yuan in just 20 minutes, and its inter position decreased significantly. In the late trading period, the price rebounded and the position increased, but the contract still fell sharply by 2.97% to a low of 26300 yuan

the decline of the main contract in November was lower than that of the contract in September. After a rapid decline in early trading, it rebounded soon, and gradually rose slowly, finally falling 1.60% to 23420 yuan. The transaction volume is obvious. The price difference between near and far contracts narrowed slightly and returned below 3000 yuan

from the trading situation, the positions of far and near contracts increased by different ranges. The positions of contracts increased significantly in November, increased by nearly 3000 to 79738 compared with the previous trading day, increased by 2903 positions in the top 20 of multiple orders, and increased by 1418 positions in the top 20 of empty orders. Among them, Zhejiang Department capital Zhejiang Dayue significantly increased its holdings of 1623 multiple orders. In September, both long and short sides of the contract also increased their positions, and Zhejiang Yongan, one of the main long players in the early stage, increased its holdings of 1336 short orders. However, bulls have not yet shown signs of abandonment

although the stiffness of all transmission systems has not been reduced due to various parties, Qian Yiwei, a mainland futures analyst, said that the current far and near contract price difference is too large, the far month price is too low, and it is actually unprofitable for bulls to further close positions. The possibility of closing positions is reduced, and the far and near contract price difference is likely to continue to narrow

the trend of crude oil has hit the popularity of the rubber market

from the perspective of fundamentals, the downturn in surrounding markets and the weak supply and demand situation have also made the rubber market bearish, which will also hit the confidence of bulls

the most direct impact is on the crude oil market. NYMEX crude oil futures fell for two consecutive trading days after falling below $120/barrel on Monday, closing below $120. Concerns about the decline in demand caused by the slowdown in U.S. economic growth have plagued the market for nearly a month, and the latest crude oil inventory report also shows that U.S. demand continues to decline. After the continuous decline of the market, sentiment has reversed, and there is no major positive or serious emergencies in the short term. It is difficult for the oil market to reverse the current adjustment situation

there is an obvious correlation between crude oil and rubber, and the weak oil price has a great impact on the rubber market. Market participants said that if crude oil is short-lived, as long as it can detect the experimental force value, it can callback and strengthen again, which will continue to drive the natural rubber market; But if the oil price never recovers, Tianjiao will not be able to survive

due to the decline of crude oil and the limit of Shanghai rubber market, TOCOM rubber also fell sharply in early trading on Thursday, and the contract in January once fell to 312.7 yen, the lowest level in more than two months

Tianjiao will turn into a seasonal decline

although the internal and external rubber prices rebounded at the end of the day, insiders believe that the price will continue to weaken. In addition to the negative impact of surrounding markets such as crude oil, the supply and demand situation of the rubber market itself is also worrying. The main production areas have entered the late stage of rubber cutting, and new rubber is being listed one after another, and the supply pressure will gradually increase; The global economy is also facing the threat of possible recession. The automobile and tire markets are depressed, and the market's expectations for long-term demand are also declining

Qian Yiwei pointed out that based on the above negative factors and the high rise of rubber price in the first half of the year, the natural rubber market will turn into a phased seasonal weakness after the rubber supply gradually enters the peak period. The futures contract of Shanghai Rubber Market in recent months is expected to follow the general market environment and continue to decline

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